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Forecast growth in percentage of online retail / Ecommerce sales 2017 to 2023

Author's avatar By Dave Chaffey 20 Nov, 2019
Essential Essential topic

The potential for online retail growth on desktop and mobile devices

It's interesting to look back at the growth of online sales and think forward to how much further they can grow at the expense of traditional channels. The overall percentage of Ecommerce retail sales are perhaps, surprisingly small at around 10% of sales in the US and 18% in the UK, but with sustained growth.

This summary of Ecommerce growth statistics uses several sources for comparison. We will update it through 2020.

November 2019 update - new worldwide sales forecasts from eMarketer

The latest ecommerce growth forecast from eMarketer suggests that globally ecommerce sales will increase to 16% of all sales in 2020. This is an increase of 19%.

This projection shows the growth in digital buyers. The declining percentage change shows that growth rates for ecommerce are declining, although they are still positive.

US E-commerce sales - November 2019 update

The US Government has been cataloguing the trend of percentage of ecommerce sales for many years. The overall percentage of sales is not as high as might be expected.

US E-commerce sales currently average out at 10.5 percent of total sales

Note that the U.S. Census data counts cooked food, auto sales/repair, and vehicle fuel as part of retail, which understates the U.S. online share of retail compared to European estimates which exclude these.

2019 update - Centre for Retail Research

The Online Retailing: Britain, Europe, US and Canada research report from the Centre for Retail Research shows that the retail online retail sector is the main driver of growth in European and North American retailing.

E-commerce growth rates in other countries

The Emarketer report also compares growth between the top 10 countries ranked by ecommerce sales, showing that China now surpasses the US and UK.

UK IMRG data

The IMRG-Cap Gemini Index is only available for members who include the largest UK E-commerce and multichannel brands. It's useful for seeing sector-specific trends. Their most recent update, for example, shows these levels of growth:

• UK online retail sales in October 2019 reported year-on-year growth of +6.3%

• Month-on-month performance reported +6.4%

• Excluding travel and ticketing retailers, the market growth was a healthy +9.2% year-on-year

• Home was the top performer with +13.6% YoY growth

• Menswear and Womenswear struggled during October with negative growth

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By Dave Chaffey

Digital strategist Dr Dave Chaffey is co-founder and Content Director of online marketing training platform and publisher Smart Insights. Dave is editor of the 100+ templates, ebooks and courses in the digital marketing resource library created by our team of 25+ digital marketing experts. Our resources are used by our Premium members in more than 100 countries to Plan, Manage and Optimize their digital marketing. Free members can access our free sample templates here. Dave is a keynote speaker, trainer and consultant who is author of 5 bestselling books on digital marketing including Digital Marketing Excellence and Digital Marketing: Strategy, Implementation and Practice. My personal site, DaveChaffey.com, lists my latest Digital marketing and E-commerce books and support materials including a digital marketing glossary. In 2004 he was recognised by the Chartered Institute of Marketing as one of 50 marketing ‘gurus’ worldwide who have helped shape the future of marketing. Please connect on LinkedIn to receive updates or ask me a question.

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Online Retail growth statistics

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