Flying Autonomous Vehicles, Biochips, and Blockchain for Data Security - how long do we have to wait until we start seeing these emerging technologies take shape?
Changes in technology are inevitable as we strive to create products and ways to improve our quality of life.
Gartner Hype Cycle 2018 - Emerging technologies
Newly released, the 2018 Hype Cycle is a perfect visual aid to understand the maturity and adoption of emerging technologies and their current state of development and expectations.
Phases in the hype cycle:
- Innovation Trigger - This might signal a breakthrough in the technology development, an initial product launch or interest from the press. This technology is on the rise which sees early adopters investigate their potential benefits.
- Peak of Inflated Expectations - After an influx of media and press attention this sparks a huge amount of interest and speculation. There is normally heightened expectations of what the technology will be able to achieve and in the development, it sees more failures than successes.
- Trough of Disillusionment - These technologies tend to not meet media/press and public expectations quick enough and consumers quickly lose interest. We see second or third rounds of venture capital funding to keep projects continuing.
- Slope of Enlightenment - Although no longer in the media headlines, companies still work on the technology to understand how it can be improved. This is where methodologies and best practices start developing.
- Plateau of Productivity - This indicated the technology had become stable and its benefits have become widely accepted and demonstrated. There is high-growth adoption where 20-30% of the potential audience has started adopting the innovation. It is also indicated whether the technology is widely applicable or only helps a certain / niche market.
What can we expect to see in the next 5+ years?
Innovation trigger - emerging technologies
Interesting, in the early stages of research and development we see technologies that already on the minds of many technology enthusiasts: Flying Autonomous Vehicles and Biotech. But these are still 10+ years away from product development and high adoption growth.
Reaching higher expectations are conversational AI platforms, 5G, and quantum computing.
Peak of inflated expectations
There has been lots of chatter and speculation around technologies such as, biochips, autonomous mobile robots and brain-computer interfaces but those that have reached the peak and are now making their way to the trough of disillusionment include IoT platform and blockchain.
After a couple of years of expectations surround smart devices and the Internet of Things there seems to be less media attention and public attention to these types of technologies and how they help a wider consumer audience.
Trough of disillusionment
The word "blockchain" can either excite a marketer or make scratch their head another time to ask "what exactly is it and how does it work"? The complexity of the technology and the confusion it creates means media, press and consumer attention is finally seeing a large decrease in it's applications to a wider audience.
Although the augmented reality is now at the bottom of the "trough", this can only get better, right? It might start making its way into a third-stage development and production with more venture capital invested into the technology - however, it's still going to be another predicated 5-10 years before we start seeing adoption and marketplace penetration.