Unbelievable! How we often fail to grasp the opportunities from technology innovation

Eight classic quotes showing how tough it is to trendspot

I've just been scanning a useful thread started by Adam Cranfield on the excellent Linked In Web Managers group about the challenges web managers need to deal with today and I was struck by the relentless page of change and the need to test and innovate. One contributor, Karen, pointed out that this is why we love what we do (mostly, the relentless Google updates can get to you sometimes).

One contributor used a brilliant quote to illustrate this from the future Alvin Toffler, who said that:

"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn."

Leonel, who posted this said:

"I try to unlearn as much as possible and now I'm relearning a lot of things that supposedly knew in depth, stripped of preconceptions trying to take each issue as new.
The biggest challenge in 2011 will leave behind preconceptions and relearn what we thought we knew in depth".

I thought this was a fantastic attitude and thought I should post it here along with some classic quotes of those who have not had this attitude and it has cost them. The quotes are all around different technologies which were dismissed by leading managers of their day. It's hard to believe them, but it shows that picking the right horse to back has always been difficult.

Telephone

“This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876.

Cinema

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"

H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

Computers at work

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.

Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Personal computers

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home”.

Ken Olson (President of Digital Equipment Corporation) at the Convention of the World Future Society in Boston in 1977

All digital technology and marketing approaches

I personally believe the best that organizations can do is to review new technology approaches relentlessly and respond rapidly where relevant. That's sounds like a quote: "Review relentlessly, respond where relevant".

This is encapsulated by the quote by the Canadian Science Fiction writer William Gibson who said:

“The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet”

A slightly different, and more forward looking perspective from Bruce Toganizzi who founded the Human Interface Team at Apple and developed the companies first interface guidelines.

“Successful technology-predicting is based on detecting discontinuities and predicting the trends that will flow from them”.

He gives the example of the introduction of the Apple iPhone and the other devices based on gestural interfaces that will follow.

So there you have it - predicting the future is challenging. I'm sure you've heard of them. Do you know of others or more recent examples?